Super Bowl Preview: 5 Reasons We’re Picking the Saints

1)   Running Game: We’re going to talk a lot about reputation vs. reality here. While the Saints have gained notoriety for their passing game, they actually ranked 6^th in the league during the regular season in rushing offense. Football Outsiders ranks them 1^st in the league in rushing DVOA, a stat that takes quality of the defense a team is facing into consideration.

The Colts defense ranked 24^th in the league during the regular season against the run. While Indy was able to hold the Jets and Ravens RB’s in check, they had to commit 8 men to the box to get that done. Against the Saints, it’s difficult for a team to put 7 men in the box, much less 8. They’re just too good through the air. We expect the Colts to run the 4-2-5 set that they ran against the Pats during the regular season. New England was more than successful running the ball against Indy. That opens a LOT of things up in the play-action passing game.

2)   Colts poor tackling in secondary: The Saints excel at gaining yards after the catch. The Colts will probably be left with their nickel package on the field for the majority of the game. Nickel CB Jerraud Powers is a liability against the run and Indy S Melvin Bullitt has had more of his tackles broken than any other player in the NFL. This is the week where the absence of Bob Sanders hurts the Colts.

3)   Turnovers: We’ve heard most of the talking heads this week state that the Saints defense won’t be as effective against the Colts because Peyton Manning doesn’t turn the ball over. Not true. Jay Cutler was the only every week starting QB to throw more picks than Peyton’s 16 this year.

4)   Red-zone defense: Both of these team’s defenses are stingy inside the 20, but the Saints unit is much better against the pass than the Colts. New Orleans is susceptible to the run on goal line plays, but the Colts were probably the least physical team in the postseason. Joseph Addai has shown in previous years that he can get the job done between the tackles. He just hasn’t done it this year. For the Colts to win Addai probably has to rush for over 100 yards in the game. Addai hasn’t rushed for more than 80 yards in a game this season, and he’s only had a one multiple touchdown game this year.

5)   Officiating: Referee Scott Green is not known to protect QB’s. Green has only thrown 7 roughing the passer flags in the last 3 seasons. Advantage Saints. If Peyton is allowed to take the same hits that Seneca Wallace and Ryan Fitzgerald take, he’ll be beaten and battered in a way that he hasn’t dealt with in years. Green’s crews are also more lenient when it comes to holding calls. Advantage Saints again.

The Colts best chance to win is to get out to an early lead and then attempt to hold the Saints off by making them one-dimensional. Football Outsiders ranks the Saints last in the league in defensive DVOA in the first quarter, but 8^th thereafter. Peyton has to strike early if the Colts are to have a chance. That’s tough to predict given the Saints rushing advantage